Nutrition · Moderate evidence

Weight change is dynamic

The body's weight response to sustained changes in energy intake is gradual and involves adaptations; projections should use curves and ranges rather than a rigid linear rule.

Mathematical model validated in controlled feeding studies · 3 sources · 2 min

What the studies show

  • The 3500 kcal per half-kilogram rule overestimates weight loss because it ignores the drop in energy expenditure as body weight decreases.
  • Weight loss slows down over time even with the same calorie deficit.
  • Validated dynamic models describe the weight trajectory far better than linear calculations.

How Letz applies it

The weight forecast in Progress uses the observed trend and an uncertainty range, never a promised target date.

Numbers derived from this rule

ParameterRangeWeightRule
Calorie deficit10–25 % of expenditure1 variant by context80%Deficit of 10 to 25% of expenditure, aiming for a loss of 0.5 to 1% of body weight per week; faster rates cost lean mass and metabolism.Rate of weight loss · Higher Protein Intake During a Calorie Deficit · Weight change is dynamic

Who it applies to

Non-pregnant, non-lactating adults, for educational and planning support.

Limits

A population model does not precisely predict an individual's response; incomplete logging and behavioral changes increase uncertainty.

Sources

More in Nutrition

  • Protein and Training AdaptationSufficient protein can support gains in lean mass and strength alongside training; the response varies and does not increase indefinitely with higher intakes.
  • Higher Protein Intake During a Calorie DeficitIn a deficit, higher protein protects lean mass and can even allow muscle gain alongside intense training; the effective range rises to approximately 1.6 to 2.4 g/kg.
  • Rate of weight lossLosing weight slowly, at around 0.5 to 1% of body weight per week, better preserves lean mass, strength, and metabolic rate compared to rapid weight loss.
  • Distribute protein throughout the dayDividing protein into servings of around 0.4 g/kg across four or more meals stimulates protein synthesis more than concentrating everything into one or two.